U.S. House editor for Cook Political Report, David Wasserman, said in an Op-Ed published by The New York Times that the Democrats primary system might be a win for President Donald Trump in his 2020 reelection bid.
“Donald Trump’s low approval ratings have attracted a crush of Democrats vying to make him a one-term president. But he might have an unlikely ally in his re-election bid: Democrats’ mess of a primary system,” Wasserman said.
“The most valuable commodity in a zillion-way presidential primary is attention,” the political analyst went on, pointing to the 2016 election as proof that Trump received the shock attention that his 15 Republican opponents did not, and it might well have secured him the party nomination.
“But an overlooked key to Mr. Trump’s 2016 upset was the Republican primary system, which winnowed the 17-candidate field quickly and gave Mr. Trump a head start at jackhammering away at Hillary Clinton,” Wasserman said.
“Democrats’ increasingly front-loaded primary calendar only adds to the chaos. California and Texas — the two largest states in the country — have moved up their primaries to Super Tuesday, on March 3.
“This means 36 percent of Democrats’ 3,768 pledged delegates will be allocated in early March, before the herd has truly been culled, making it even harder for one candidate to build a delegate majority.
Wasserman then went on to talk about Superdelegates and how they might affect the upcoming presidential fight, but pivoted back to the crowded Democratic presidential field:
“Some Democratic strategists argue that a large field is healthy for the party and that Democratic voters are so desperate to beat Mr. Trump they’ll pragmatically consolidate quickly behind a nominee no matter what. That could still turn out to be true,” Wasserman said.
“But today’s Democratic Party is highly fractious. Some on its left flank insist on nothing less than full support for a Green New Deal, single-payer health care or disbanding Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
“However, plenty of 2020 primary voters will be upscale suburban Republicans and independents whom Mr. Trump has converted to Democrats and who bristle at these proposals. There are also Democrats who believe that a white or male nominee can’t fully grasp the plight of Americans most vulnerable to discrimination. And there are Democrats averse to nominating a septuagenarian or a ‘coastal elite.’”
Wasserman wrapped up his analysis of the Democratic primary by saying:
“If an all-out fracas next July in Milwaukee were to leave even one of these groups embittered, it could cost the party. After all, Democrats are up against a highly manipulative politician who in 2016 pried open just enough cracks in their coalition to win the Electoral College by a combined 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin out of 137 million cast.”