Recent polling data tracking President Trump’s support among black and minority voters has many in the Democratic Party doing a double-take. As noted by Newsday, there are four unique sets of data that could be particularly troubling for Democrats, and, if the numbers hold, could nearly guarantee a re-election for Trump.
Recent polls from Emerson and Marist both measure Trump’s support among non-white voters to be north of 30%, and even CNN has reported black support for the president to be at 26%. RasmussenReports published a higher percentage of black support (34%), a number which InsideSources has dubbed: “The Kanye effect.”
Juan Williams has noted that these polls are an early Christmas present for Trump and his supporters, predicting bluntly: “If those polls are right, the 2020 election is over. Get ready for Trump to stay in the White House until 2025.”
However, Williams is not ready to mourn Trump’s reelection… Not yet, anyway.
“I have my doubts,” Williams wrote in his opinion piece for The Hill. The commentator claimed that the sample sizes of the polls were too small to be of any great significance, and also went on to say that Trump’s approval among black voters typically trends around 10%.
Williams’ main concern, however, is that “depressed” or “suppressed” black voter turnout in 2020 could hand Trump four more years. Without a black Democratic presidential candidate, Williams fears that next year’s election could be a continuation of the 2016 election, where black voter turnout was down 7% as compared with 2012.
It is thus concluded by Williams that since “racial identification” will not be a factor in increasing black turnout, Democrats are going to have to count on dissatisfaction with Trump to be a sufficient motivator in getting out the vote.
Whether or not these figures will swing the 2020 election in Trump’s favor, they are a certainly a public relations victory for the campaign. His team already sought to capitalized on it via an email sent to supporters, which had the following title: “Black Voters Are Raising Their Voices in Support of President Trump. Recent Polls Show Significant Increase in Support from Black Community.”
As Williams points out, low voter turnout among blacks helped Trump to secure the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Given the recent polls, Democrats may have to reevaluate their strategy if they want to turn things around in time for next November.
Written by Red Blue Divide editorial staff