According to three different economic models used by Moody’s Analytics to measure presidential contests, President Donald Trump is considered the likely winner of the 2020 presidential election.
The Hill reported that Moody’s modeling of predicting the election has correctly predicted all but one election since 1980, including that Trump would win in 2016, which he did by a 304-227 margin in the Electoral College, which they have said that they expect him to surpass in 2020.
“The three different models showed Trump winning either 289, 332 or 351 votes in the Electoral College over his eventual opponent,” The Hill reported. “The projections are based on how consumers feel about their financial situations, stock market gains achieved under Trump and the prospects for unemployment.”
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper Mark Zandi, told CNBC. “It’s about turnout.”
According to the models cited by The Hill, the president performed the best in the “pocketbook” measure, which measures how voters feel about the subject’s effects on their finances.
“Our ‘pocketbook’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
According to one of the projected model, Democrats could squeak out a victory if they had a historically high turnout, which is considered unlikely
“The report is likely to be welcome news to Trump’s campaign, which has sought to leverage on a strong economy to try to offset an array of other issues, including the House’s growing impeachment investigation,” The Hill reported.
For his part, the president seems confident that his position on Pennsylvania Ave.is safe, despite the impeachment inquiry:
“Only 25 percent want the President Impeached, which is pretty low considering the volume of Fake News coverage, but pretty high considering the fact that I did NOTHING wrong,” Trump said in a tweet last week. “It is all just a continuation of the greatest Scam and Witch Hunt in the history of our Country!
“Impeached for what, having created the greatest Economy in the history of our Country, building our strongest ever Military, Cutting Taxes too much?” Trump tweeted last week.”
Impeached for what, having created the greatest Economy in the history of our Country, building our strongest ever Military, Cutting Taxes too much? https://t.co/LWxfEcRmj4
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 10, 2019
Written by Savannah Pointer.